How can I tell programatically when an embedded/blogged flickr image is replaced with a "photo no longer available" image?
With Ruby if possible.
You could use the Flickr flickr.photos.getPerms
API method with the photo ID extracted from any URLs you have.
http://www.flickr.com/services/api/flickr.photos.getPerms.html
This would tell you if the photo is missing or has had it's permissions changed to prevent public viewing.
Various Ruby wrappers are available for the Flickr API.