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rforecasting

ETS function in package 'Forecast" in R, minimum data points


For the ETS function in R, am I looking for the minimal number of data points for the forecast. I read both of the Hyndman papers (2002 & 2008) which are mentioned in the documentation, but I could not find a quantifiable value. In: http://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/short-time-series/ he mentioned that it depends on the number of parameters . But at this point I am looking for a good source that can clarify the amount of data points needed in the ETS function. Can somebody help me with this?


Solution

  • Why don't you just try it and see what happens. You will find that the ets function will work with a single observation:

    > 1 %>% ets %>% forecast
       Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95
     2              1     1     1     1     1
     3              1     1     1     1     1
     4              1     1     1     1     1
     5              1     1     1     1     1
     6              1     1     1     1     1
     7              1     1     1     1     1
     8              1     1     1     1     1
     9              1     1     1     1     1
    10              1     1     1     1     1
    11              1     1     1     1     1
    

    Of course, it is not fitting two parameters, but it is doing something reasonable given the information provided.

    If you read the blog post you cite, I write "The only reasonable approach is to first check that there are enough observations to estimate the model, and then to test if the model performs well out-of-sample." You need more observations than parameters to actually estimate the model.