I'm trying to replicate simulations with a piece of jags code by Mark the Ballot, but jags is sending me an error message..
If I understood it correctly, it should have a problem with indexing house effects for each party somewhere, but I'm unable to find it because the node seems to be already indexed. Does anyone have an idea what the error is like?
model <- jags.model(textConnection(model),
data = data,
n.chains=4,
n.adapt=10000
Compiling model graph
Resolving undeclared variables
Allocating nodes
Deleting model
Error in jags.model(textConnection(model2), data = data, n.chains = 4, :
RUNTIME ERROR:
Cannot insert node into houseEffect[1...4,2]. Dimension mismatch
model <- '
model {
for(poll in 1:NUMPOLLS) {
adjusted_poll[poll, 1:PARTIES] <- walk[pollDay[poll], 1:PARTIES] +
houseEffect[house[poll], 1:PARTIES]
primaryVotes[poll, 1:PARTIES] ~ dmulti(adjusted_poll[poll, 1:PARTIES], n[poll])
}
tightness <- 50000
discontinuity_tightness <- 50
for(day in 2:(discontinuity-1)) {
multinomial[day, 1:PARTIES] <- walk[day-1, 1:PARTIES] * tightness
walk[day, 1:PARTIES] ~ ddirch(multinomial[day, 1:PARTIES])
}
multinomial[discontinuity, 1:PARTIES] <- walk[discontinuity-1, 1:PARTIES] * discontinuity_tightness
walk[discontinuity, 1:PARTIES] ~ ddirch(multinomial[discontinuity, 1:PARTIES])
for(day in discontinuity+1:PERIOD) {
multinomial[day, 1:PARTIES] <- walk[day-1, 1:PARTIES] * tightness
walk[day, 1:PARTIES] ~ ddirch(multinomial[day, 1:PARTIES])
}
for (party in 1:2) {
alpha[party] ~ dunif(250, 600)
}
for (party in 3:PARTIES) {
alpha[party] ~ dunif(10, 250)
}
walk[1, 1:PARTIES] ~ ddirch(alpha[])
for(day in 1:PERIOD) {
CoalitionTPP[day] <- sum(walk[day, 1:PARTIES] *
preference_flows[1:PARTIES])
}
for (party in 2:PARTIES) {
houseEffect[1, party] <- -sum( houseEffect[2:HOUSECOUNT, party] )
}
for(house in 1:HOUSECOUNT) {
houseEffect[house, 1] <- -sum( houseEffect[house, 2:PARTIES] )
}
# but note, we do not apply a double constraint to houseEffect[1, 1]
monitorHouseEffectOneSumParties <- sum(houseEffect[1, 1:PARTIES])
monitorHouseEffectOneSumHouses <- sum(houseEffect[1:HOUSECOUNT, 1])
for (party in 2:PARTIES) {
for(house in 2:HOUSECOUNT) {
houseEffect[house, party] ~ dnorm(0, pow(0.1, -2))
} } }
'
preference_flows <- c(1.0, 0.0, 0.1697, 0.533)
PERIOD = 26
HOUSECOUNT = 5
NUMPOLLS = 35
PARTIES = 4
discontinuity = 20
pollDay = c(1, 1, 2, 2, 6, 8, 8, 9, 9, 10, 10, 10, 10, 12, 12, 13, 14, 14, 16, 16, 17, 18, 19, 19, 20, 21, 22, 22, 24, 24, 24, 24, 24, 26, 26)
house = c(1, 2, 3, 4, 3, 3, 5, 1, 2, 1, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4, 2, 3, 4, 3, 4, 5, 3, 2, 4, 3, 5, 3, 4, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 3, 4)
n = c(1400, 1400, 1000, 1155, 1000, 1000, 3690, 1400, 1400, 1400, 1000, 1177, 3499, 1000, 1180, 1400, 1000, 1161, 1000, 1148, 2419, 1000, 1386, 1148, 1000, 2532, 1000, 1172, 1682, 1402, 1000, 1160, 3183, 1000, 1169)
preference_flows = c(1.0000, 0.0000, 0.1697, 0.5330)
primaryVotes = read.csv(text = c(
'Coalition, Labor, Greens, Other
532,574,154,140
560,518,168,154
350,410,115,125
439,450,139,127
385,385,95,135
375,395,120,110
1465,1483,417,325
504,602,154,140
532,560,154,154
504,602,154,140
355,415,120,110
412,483,141,141
1345,1450,392,312
375,405,100,120
448,448,142,142
588,504,168,140
390,380,115,115
441,453,139,128
380,400,110,110
471,425,126,126
957,979,278,205
405,360,125,110
546,532,182,126
471,413,126,138
385,380,120,115
1008,995,301,228
400,375,115,110
457,410,141,164
690,656,185,151
603,491,182,126
415,355,125,105
464,429,139,128
1307,1218,385,273
410,370,130,90
479,433,152,105'), sep=",")
data = list(PERIOD = PERIOD,
HOUSECOUNT = HOUSECOUNT,
NUMPOLLS = NUMPOLLS,
PARTIES = PARTIES,
primaryVotes = primaryVotes,
pollDay = pollDay,
house = house,
discontinuity = discontinuity,
# manage rounding issues with df$Sample ...
n = rowSums(primaryVotes),
preference_flows = preference_flows
)
print(data)
The problem is that you are passing house to the model as a parameter, and you are using a house variable in a loop. JAGS 4.0.1 is confused. If you re-code to replace "house" in the loop with (say) "h" it should work ... example follows ...
for (h in 2:HOUSECOUNT) {
for (p in 2:PARTIES) {
# vague priors ...
houseEffect[h, p] ~ dnorm(0, pow(0.1, -2))
}
}
for (p in 2:PARTIES) {
houseEffect[1, p] <- -sum( houseEffect[2:HOUSECOUNT, p] )
}
for(h in 1:HOUSECOUNT) {
houseEffect[h, 1] <- -sum( houseEffect[h, 2:PARTIES] )
}