i dont claim in any shape or form claim to be a Flash Activist, but apart from its obvious annoyances and discrepancies, any fool can see its couple of uses, that are in a big way reasonably important to the right consumer and website.
There has been a lot of talk that HTML5 and CSS3 is the future of the web, so much so that ie9 is actually going to heavily incorporate it (Yes, you read it, internet explorer may be half decent), i know i was as shocked as you are right now.
But what are there key features (technologies, advances , whatever you wana call them) behind HTML5 and CSS3 that allow the possibility of Flash becoming obsolete despite Adobe constantly trying to improve the Flash platform, and if so why are they bothering?
The main one is the video tag. Video on the web will stop using flash. Youtube will be the first to do this. IE9 that supports html5 will be released early next year. It's the last (and most importantant) browser everyone is waiting for to support html5. When that happens, the porn sites will get on the html5 too and flash as we know it for video will die.
Secondly you're wrong concerning Adobe. Adobe are one of the best tool makers and they rule the web graphics market. They're actually on the HTML5 bandwagon too. Flash CS5 allows to export to HTML5 canvas. What this means is that people that make those annoying ads in flash will export those same things to HTML5.
So basically, video and ads will be replaced by html5. I give it about 2 years for the Flash plug-in to not be used for these. (Note: the flash plugin still might be used for games and RIAs for some time.. Adobe still hasn't figured out how to export actionscript into javascript - they only know how to export animations and graphics. But when that happens then casual games will probably be replaced by html5 too.)
Check this out in any browser except iexplorer. html5 is looking pretty sweet these days: