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rgraphmodelforecasting

How to interpret Forecasting Models in R


I created a forecasting model using stlf(), auto.arima(), HoltWinters() methods in R and I get something like this:

enter image description here

What does the colouring mean i.e. what does the grey area and purplish area indicate?


Solution

  • To put it simple, it means that there is a 80 or 95 % chance that your future values will lie in the respectful shaded areas. On the other hand it also means that your point forecasts (dark blue line) have 0 % probability of realization.