How to mark slope changes in LOESS curve using ggplot2?

Question

I have some time-series data that I'm fitting a loess curve in ggplot2, as seen attached. The data takes the shape of an "S" curve. What I really need to find out is the date where the data starts to level off, which looks to be right around time '550' or '600'

Is there some kind of quantitative way that this can be marked off in the graph?

A link to the dataset: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/75403/stover_data.txt

A dput() of the dataset:

structure(list(date = c(211L, 213L, 215L, 217L, 218L, 221L, 222L, 
223L, 224L, 225L, 226L, 228L, 229L, 230L, 231L, 232L, 233L, 234L, 
235L, 236L, 237L, 238L, 239L, 240L, 241L, 242L, 244L, 246L, 247L, 
248L, 249L, 250L, 251L, 253L, 254L, 255L, 256L, 258L, 259L, 260L, 
261L, 262L, 263L, 264L, 265L, 266L, 267L, 268L, 269L, 270L, 271L, 
272L, 273L, 274L, 275L, 276L, 277L, 278L, 279L, 281L, 282L, 283L, 
285L, 286L, 287L, 288L, 290L, 291L, 292L, 293L, 294L, 295L, 296L, 
297L, 298L, 299L, 300L, 301L, 302L, 304L, 305L, 306L, 307L, 308L, 
309L, 310L, 311L, 312L, 313L, 314L, 315L, 316L, 317L, 318L, 319L, 
320L, 321L, 322L, 323L, 324L, 325L, 326L, 327L, 328L, 329L, 330L, 
331L, 332L, 333L, 334L, 335L, 336L, 337L, 338L, 339L, 340L, 341L, 
342L, 343L, 344L, 345L, 346L, 347L, 348L, 349L, 350L, 351L, 352L, 
353L, 354L, 355L, 356L, 357L, 358L, 359L, 360L, 361L, 362L, 363L, 
364L, 365L, 366L, 367L, 368L, 369L, 370L, 371L, 372L, 373L, 374L, 
375L, 376L, 377L, 378L, 379L, 380L, 381L, 382L, 383L, 384L, 385L, 
386L, 387L, 388L, 389L, 390L, 391L, 392L, 393L, 394L, 395L, 396L, 
397L, 398L, 399L, 400L, 402L, 404L, 405L, 406L, 407L, 408L, 410L, 
411L, 413L, 414L, 415L, 416L, 418L, 419L, 420L, 421L, 422L, 423L, 
424L, 425L, 426L, 427L, 428L, 429L, 430L, 431L, 432L, 433L, 434L, 
435L, 436L, 437L, 438L, 439L, 440L, 441L, 442L, 443L, 444L, 445L, 
446L, 447L, 448L, 449L, 450L, 451L, 452L, 453L, 455L, 456L, 457L, 
458L, 459L, 460L, 461L, 462L, 463L, 464L, 465L, 466L, 467L, 468L, 
469L, 470L, 471L, 472L, 473L, 474L, 475L, 476L, 477L, 478L, 479L, 
480L, 481L, 482L, 483L, 484L, 485L, 486L, 487L, 488L, 489L, 490L, 
491L, 492L, 493L, 494L, 495L, 496L, 497L, 498L, 499L, 500L, 501L, 
502L, 503L, 504L, 505L, 506L, 507L, 508L, 509L, 510L, 511L, 512L, 
513L, 514L, 515L, 516L, 517L, 518L, 519L, 520L, 521L, 522L, 523L, 
524L, 527L, 528L, 529L, 530L, 531L, 532L, 533L, 534L, 535L, 536L, 
537L, 538L, 539L, 540L, 541L, 544L, 545L, 546L, 547L, 548L, 549L, 
550L, 551L, 552L, 553L, 554L, 555L, 556L, 557L, 558L, 559L, 560L, 
561L, 562L, 563L, 564L, 565L, 566L, 567L, 568L, 569L, 570L, 571L, 
572L, 573L, 574L, 575L, 576L, 577L, 578L, 579L, 580L, 581L, 582L, 
583L, 587L, 588L, 589L, 590L, 591L, 592L, 593L, 594L, 595L, 596L, 
597L, 598L, 599L, 600L, 601L, 602L, 603L, 604L, 605L, 606L, 607L, 
608L, 609L, 610L, 611L, 612L, 613L, 614L, 615L, 616L, 617L, 618L, 
619L, 620L, 621L, 622L, 623L, 624L, 625L, 626L, 627L, 628L, 629L, 
630L, 631L, 632L, 634L, 635L, 636L, 637L, 638L, 639L, 640L, 641L, 
642L, 643L, 644L, 645L, 646L, 647L, 648L, 649L, 650L, 651L, 652L, 
653L, 654L, 655L, 656L, 657L, 658L, 659L, 660L, 661L, 662L, 663L, 
664L, 665L, 666L, 667L, 668L, 669L, 670L, 671L, 672L, 673L, 674L, 
675L, 676L, 677L, 678L, 679L, 680L, 681L, 684L, 685L, 686L, 687L, 
688L, 689L, 690L, 691L, 692L, 693L, 694L, 695L, 696L, 697L, 698L, 
699L, 700L, 701L, 702L, 703L, 704L, 705L, 706L, 707L, 708L, 709L, 
710L, 711L, 712L, 713L, 714L, 715L, 716L, 717L, 718L, 719L, 720L, 
721L, 722L, 723L, 724L, 725L, 726L, 727L, 728L, 729L, 730L, 731L, 
732L, 733L, 734L, 735L, 736L, 737L, 738L, 739L, 740L, 741L, 742L, 
743L, 744L, 745L, 746L, 747L, 748L, 749L, 750L, 751L, 752L, 753L, 
754L, 755L, 756L, 757L, 758L, 759L, 760L, 761L, 762L, 763L, 764L, 
765L, 766L, 767L, 768L, 769L, 770L, 771L, 772L, 773L, 774L, 775L, 
776L, 777L, 778L, 781L, 782L, 783L, 784L, 785L, 786L, 787L, 788L, 
789L, 790L, 791L, 792L, 793L, 794L, 795L, 796L, 797L, 798L, 799L, 
800L, 801L, 802L, 803L, 804L, 805L, 806L, 807L, 808L, 809L, 810L, 
811L, 812L, 813L, 814L, 815L, 816L, 817L, 818L, 819L, 820L, 821L, 
822L, 823L, 824L, 825L, 826L, 827L, 828L, 829L, 830L, 831L, 832L, 
833L, 834L, 835L, 836L, 837L, 838L, 839L, 840L, 841L), org_count = c(2L, 
1L, 3L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 3L, 2L, 5L, 3L, 2L, 1L, 4L, 1L, 
1L, 10L, 10L, 4L, 5L, 4L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 3L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 
1L, 3L, 6L, 4L, 2L, 1L, 3L, 1L, 2L, 4L, 4L, 6L, 3L, 2L, 6L, 12L, 
13L, 14L, 8L, 7L, 5L, 11L, 11L, 1L, 40L, 13L, 1L, 2L, 4L, 2L, 
5L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 3L, 5L, 1L, 3L, 4L, 1L, 4L, 7L, 12L, 3L, 3L, 
2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 3L, 4L, 2L, 5L, 6L, 4L, 5L, 6L, 3L, 6L, 4L, 
16L, 79L, 61L, 31L, 43L, 40L, 38L, 25L, 22L, 29L, 22L, 5L, 6L, 
11L, 6L, 6L, 8L, 7L, 4L, 7L, 11L, 4L, 18L, 10L, 13L, 10L, 8L, 
12L, 14L, 11L, 22L, 13L, 16L, 16L, 6L, 5L, 11L, 17L, 11L, 11L, 
16L, 15L, 13L, 16L, 15L, 12L, 16L, 14L, 9L, 15L, 18L, 20L, 13L, 
15L, 21L, 16L, 6L, 22L, 20L, 13L, 19L, 15L, 23L, 19L, 18L, 21L, 
21L, 12L, 15L, 41L, 26L, 14L, 12L, 11L, 11L, 9L, 9L, 8L, 7L, 
5L, 2L, 7L, 6L, 2L, 3L, 4L, 2L, 2L, 1L, 7L, 3L, 3L, 4L, 2L, 3L, 
1L, 2L, 1L, 2L, 2L, 2L, 6L, 5L, 7L, 8L, 6L, 5L, 8L, 6L, 5L, 5L, 
4L, 4L, 8L, 5L, 3L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 6L, 5L, 6L, 4L, 1L, 4L, 2L, 5L, 
1L, 2L, 1L, 1L, 1L, 2L, 3L, 5L, 1L, 1L, 3L, 3L, 4L, 3L, 4L, 6L, 
6L, 1L, 2L, 3L, 6L, 4L, 7L, 17L, 6L, 5L, 2L, 4L, 6L, 8L, 1L, 
3L, 2L, 4L, 4L, 2L, 3L, 4L, 3L, 3L, 7L, 9L, 6L, 14L, 12L, 12L, 
6L, 15L, 33L, 19L, 13L, 17L, 12L, 16L, 10L, 7L, 7L, 6L, 20L, 
20L, 8L, 14L, 9L, 22L, 21L, 6L, 6L, 8L, 54L, 44L, 22L, 21L, 14L, 
13L, 64L, 34L, 26L, 21L, 61L, 43L, 47L, 42L, 37L, 57L, 46L, 38L, 
33L, 32L, 51L, 76L, 36L, 31L, 45L, 35L, 27L, 17L, 17L, 12L, 7L, 
77L, 69L, 18L, 28L, 37L, 35L, 40L, 47L, 36L, 37L, 33L, 17L, 24L, 
13L, 19L, 28L, 22L, 27L, 49L, 37L, 25L, 30L, 35L, 20L, 16L, 20L, 
10L, 15L, 67L, 35L, 32L, 28L, 48L, 66L, 76L, 68L, 38L, 16L, 18L, 
37L, 29L, 37L, 53L, 31L, 30L, 20L, 48L, 36L, 35L, 31L, 33L, 16L, 
13L, 32L, 56L, 47L, 32L, 39L, 20L, 27L, 53L, 62L, 60L, 49L, 41L, 
17L, 25L, 26L, 42L, 33L, 48L, 34L, 25L, 24L, 51L, 31L, 44L, 37L, 
27L, 17L, 35L, 32L, 34L, 28L, 28L, 28L, 28L, 53L, 48L, 58L, 49L, 
25L, 25L, 34L, 33L, 63L, 75L, 112L, 74L, 29L, 36L, 36L, 42L, 
42L, 44L, 49L, 16L, 24L, 27L, 47L, 40L, 37L, 33L, 13L, 25L, 31L, 
45L, 40L, 53L, 51L, 30L, 41L, 43L, 60L, 46L, 39L, 24L, 39L, 48L, 
59L, 43L, 71L, 31L, 21L, 37L, 45L, 41L, 45L, 34L, 19L, 19L, 25L, 
45L, 40L, 28L, 33L, 19L, 25L, 25L, 31L, 25L, 29L, 31L, 30L, 27L, 
40L, 31L, 25L, 42L, 29L, 18L, 11L, 27L, 34L, 35L, 59L, 32L, 23L, 
22L, 29L, 38L, 39L, 35L, 47L, 21L, 16L, 33L, 22L, 15L, 18L, 16L, 
20L, 16L, 36L, 44L, 58L, 35L, 21L, 20L, 14L, 55L, 34L, 30L, 40L, 
27L, 34L, 31L, 47L, 53L, 42L, 59L, 55L, 41L, 43L, 29L, 26L, 32L, 
40L, 33L, 28L, 27L, 47L, 40L, 52L, 48L, 58L, 38L, 35L, 29L, 37L, 
19L, 19L, 22L, 15L, 16L, 21L, 31L, 25L, 31L, 23L, 32L, 30L, 80L, 
45L, 49L, 32L, 18L, 29L, 35L, 23L, 27L, 21L, 21L, 29L, 43L, 106L, 
58L, 117L, 49L, 28L, 24L, 43L, 49L, 34L, 23L, 28L, 16L, 21L, 
45L, 37L, 29L, 32L, 26L, 16L, 18L, 26L, 24L, 21L, 18L, 16L, 23L, 
10L, 19L, 24L, 29L, 11L, 26L, 15L, 14L, 19L)), .Names = c("date", 
"org_count"), class = "data.frame", row.names = c(NA, -599L))

Graph:

Code:

> p<-qplot(date,org_count, data=christi)

> p+stat_smooth(method="loess",size=1.5)

Answer 1

If you are asking for a way of determining the point where the curve is a maximum (i.e. flat), this is the same as finding the point where the slope of the line is at its maximum (from basic calculus).

First, read your data:

christi <- read.table("http://dl.dropbox.com/u/75403/stover_data.txt", sep="\t", header=TRUE)

Next, use loess to fit a smoothed model:

fit <- loess(org_count~date, data=christi)

Then, predict the values in your range of x-values (with predict.loess), determine the slope (diff is close enough`), and find the

x <- 200:800
px <- predict(fit, newdata=x)
px1 <- diff(px)

which.max(px1)
[1] 367

Since the start value of x is 200, this means the curve is flat at position 200+367=567.

---

If you wanted to plot this:

par(mfrow=c(1, 2))
plot(x, px, main="loess model")

plot(x[-1], px1, main="diff(loess model)")
abline(v=567, col="red")