enter image description here Box plot
I have plotted an output variable as a box plot for the number of runs. But I fail to provide argumentation on which should be the optimum amount of runs that should be carried out.
If each simulation is considered one observation in a sample, your sample size (number of simulations) should be large enough so that estimate of the parameter of interest approaches the true population value for the model (See Cowled, B.D., Garner, M.G., Negus, K., Ward, M.P., 2012. Controlling disease outbreaks in wildlife using limited culling: modelling classical swine fever incursions in wild pigs in Australia. Vet. Res. 43, 3). This is what Cowled et al. did: "To estimate our sample size, we calculated the mean of the parameter-of-interest (after each simulation). We then determined the coefficient of variation of this mean. At the point when the coefficient of variation was less than 15% for 30 consecutive simulations we considered that convergence had occurred and that this number of simulations was adequate to estimate the parameter with precision." I have used a similar approach to calculate the required number of model simulations: Belsare, A.V. and Gompper, M.E. 2015. A model-based approach for investigation and mitigation of disease spillover risks to wildlife: dogs, foxes and canine distemper in central India. Ecological Modelling 296, 102-112.
