I asked a question on this this morning but am deleting that and posting here with more betterer wording.
I created my first machine learning model using train and test data. I returned a confusion matrix and saw some summary stats.
I would now like to apply the model to new data to make predictions but I don't know how.
Context: Predicting monthly "churn" cancellations. Target variable is "churned" and it has two possible labels "churned" and "not churned".
head(tdata)
months_subscription nvk_medium org_type churned
1 25 none Community not churned
2 7 none Sports clubs not churned
3 28 none Sports clubs not churned
4 18 unknown Religious congregations and communities not churned
5 15 none Association - Professional not churned
6 9 none Association - Professional not churned
Here's me training and testing:
library("klaR")
library("caret")
# import data
test_data_imp <- read.csv("tdata.csv")
# subset only required vars
# had to remove "revenue" since all churned records are 0 (need last price point)
variables <- c("months_subscription", "nvk_medium", "org_type", "churned")
tdata <- test_data_imp[variables]
#training
rn_train <- sample(nrow(tdata),
floor(nrow(tdata)*0.75))
train <- tdata[rn_train,]
test <- tdata[-rn_train,]
model <- NaiveBayes(churned ~., data=train)
# testing
predictions <- predict(model, test)
confusionMatrix(test$churned, predictions$class)
Everything up till here works fine.
Now I have new data, structure and laid out the same way as tdata above. How can I apply my model to this new data to make predictions? Intuitively I was seeking a new column cbinded that had the predicted class for each record.
I tried this:
## prediction ##
# import data
data_imp <- read.csv("pdata.csv")
pdata <- data_imp[variables]
actual_predictions <- predict(model, pdata)
#append to data and output (as head by default)
predicted_data <- cbind(pdata, actual_predictions$class)
# output
head(predicted_data)
Which threw errors
actual_predictions <- predict(model, pdata)
Error in object$tables[[v]][, nd] : subscript out of bounds
In addition: Warning messages:
1: In FUN(1:6433[[4L]], ...) :
Numerical 0 probability for all classes with observation 1
2: In FUN(1:6433[[4L]], ...) :
Numerical 0 probability for all classes with observation 2
3: In FUN(1:6433[[4L]], ...) :
Numerical 0 probability for all classes with observation 3
How can I apply my model to the new data? I'd like a new data frame with a new column that has the predicted class?
** following comment, here is head and str of new data for prediction**
head(pdata)
months_subscription nvk_medium org_type churned
1 26 none Community not churned
2 8 none Sports clubs not churned
3 30 none Sports clubs not churned
4 19 unknown Religious congregations and communities not churned
5 16 none Association - Professional not churned
6 10 none Association - Professional not churned
> str(pdata)
'data.frame': 6433 obs. of 4 variables:
$ months_subscription: int 26 8 30 19 16 10 3 5 14 2 ...
$ nvk_medium : Factor w/ 16 levels "cloned","CommunityIcon",..: 9 9 9 16 9 9 9 3 12 9 ...
$ org_type : Factor w/ 21 levels "Advocacy and civic activism",..: 8 18 18 14 6 6 11 19 6 8 ...
$ churned : Factor w/ 1 level "not churned": 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
This is most likely caused by a mismatch in the encoding of factors in the training data (variable tdata in your case) and the new data used in the predict function (variable pdata), typically that you have factor levels in the test data that are not present in the training data. Consistency in the encoding of the features must be enforced by you, because the predict function will not check it. Therefore, I suggest that you double-check the levels of the features nvk_medium and org_type in the two variables.
The error message:
Error in object$tables[[v]][, nd] : subscript out of bounds
is raised when evaluating a given feature (the v-th feature) in a data point, in which nd is the numeric value of the factor corresponding to the feature. You also have warnings, indicating that the posterior probabilities for all the cases in data points ("observation") 1, 2, and 3 are all zero, but it is not clear if this is also related to the encoding of the factors...
To reproduce the error that you are seeing, consider the following toy data (from http://amunategui.github.io/binary-outcome-modeling/), which has a set of features somewhat similar to that in your data:
# Data setup
# From http://amunategui.github.io/binary-outcome-modeling/
titanicDF <- read.csv('http://math.ucdenver.edu/RTutorial/titanic.txt', sep='\t')
titanicDF$Title <- as.factor(ifelse(grepl('Mr ',titanicDF$Name),'Mr',ifelse(grepl('Mrs ',titanicDF$Name),'Mrs',ifelse(grepl('Miss',titanicDF$Name),'Miss','Nothing'))) )
titanicDF$Age[is.na(titanicDF$Age)] <- median(titanicDF$Age, na.rm=T)
titanicDF$Survived <- as.factor(titanicDF$Survived)
titanicDF <- titanicDF[c('PClass', 'Age', 'Sex', 'Title', 'Survived')]
# Separate into training and test data
inds_train <- sample(1:nrow(titanicDF), round(0.5 * nrow(titanicDF)), replace = FALSE)
Data_train <- titanicDF[inds_train, , drop = FALSE]
Data_test <- titanicDF[-inds_train, , drop = FALSE]
with:
> str(Data_train)
'data.frame': 656 obs. of 5 variables:
$ PClass : Factor w/ 3 levels "1st","2nd","3rd": 1 3 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 3 ...
$ Age : num 35 28 34 28 29 28 28 28 45 28 ...
$ Sex : Factor w/ 2 levels "female","male": 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 ...
$ Title : Factor w/ 4 levels "Miss","Mr","Mrs",..: 2 2 2 1 2 4 3 2 3 2 ...
$ Survived: Factor w/ 2 levels "0","1": 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 ...
> str(Data_test)
'data.frame': 657 obs. of 5 variables:
$ PClass : Factor w/ 3 levels "1st","2nd","3rd": 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
$ Age : num 47 63 39 58 19 28 50 37 25 39 ...
$ Sex : Factor w/ 2 levels "female","male": 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 ...
$ Title : Factor w/ 4 levels "Miss","Mr","Mrs",..: 2 1 2 3 3 2 3 2 2 2 ...
$ Survived: Factor w/ 2 levels "0","1": 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 ...
Then everything goes as expected:
model <- NaiveBayes(Survived ~ ., data = Data_train)
# This will work
pred_1 <- predict(model, Data_test)
> str(pred_1)
List of 2
$ class : Factor w/ 2 levels "0","1": 1 2 1 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 ...
..- attr(*, "names")= chr [1:657] "6" "7" "8" "9" ...
$ posterior: num [1:657, 1:2] 0.8352 0.0216 0.8683 0.0204 0.0435 ...
..- attr(*, "dimnames")=List of 2
.. ..$ : chr [1:657] "6" "7" "8" "9" ...
.. ..$ : chr [1:2] "0" "1"
However, if the encoding is not consistent, e.g.:
# Mess things up, by "displacing" the factor values (i.e., 'Nothing'
# will now be encoded as number 5, which was not present in the
# training data)
Data_test_2 <- Data_test
Data_test_2$Title <- factor(
as.character(Data_test_2$Title),
levels = c("Dr", "Miss", "Mr", "Mrs", "Nothing")
)
> str(Data_test_2)
'data.frame': 657 obs. of 5 variables:
$ PClass : Factor w/ 3 levels "1st","2nd","3rd": 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
$ Age : num 47 63 39 58 19 28 50 37 25 39 ...
$ Sex : Factor w/ 2 levels "female","male": 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2 ...
$ Title : Factor w/ 5 levels "Dr","Miss","Mr",..: 3 2 3 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 ...
$ Survived: Factor w/ 2 levels "0","1": 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 ...
then:
> pred_2 <- predict(model, Data_test_2)
Error in object$tables[[v]][, nd] : subscript out of bounds