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Expectation Maximization coin toss examples


I've been self-studying the Expectation Maximization lately, and grabbed myself some simple examples in the process:

http://cs.dartmouth.edu/~cs104/CS104_11.04.22.pdf There are 3 coins 0, 1 and 2 with P0, P1 and P2 probability landing on Head when tossed. Toss coin 0, if the result is Head, toss coin 1 three times else toss coin 2 three times. The observed data produced by coin 1 and 2 is like this: HHH, TTT, HHH, TTT, HHH. The hidden data is coin 0's result. Estimate P0, P1 and P2.

http://ai.stanford.edu/~chuongdo/papers/em_tutorial.pdf There are two coins A and B with PA and PB being the probability landing on Head when tossed. Each round, select one coin at random and toss it 10 times then record the results. The observed data is the toss results provided by these two coins. However, we don't know which coin was selected for a particular round. Estimate PA and PB.

While I can get the calculations, I can't relate the ways they are solved to the original EM theory. Specifically, during the M-Step of both examples, I don't see how they're maximizing anything. It just seems they are recalculating the parameters and somehow, the new parameters are better than the old ones. Moreover, the two E-Steps don't even look similar to each other, not to mention the original theory's E-Step.

So how exactly do these example work?


Solution

  • The second PDF won't download for me, but I also visited the wikipedia page http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Expectation%E2%80%93maximization_algorithm which has more information. http://melodi.ee.washington.edu/people/bilmes/mypapers/em.pdf (which claims to be a gentle introduction) might be worth a look too.

    The whole point of the EM algorithm is to find parameters which maximize the likelihood of the observed data. This is the only bullet point on page 8 of the first PDF, the equation for capital Theta subscript ML.

    The EM algorithm comes in handy where there is hidden data which would make the problem easy if you knew it. In the three coins example this is the result of tossing coin 0. If you knew the outcome of that you could (of course) produce an estimate for the probability of coin 0 turning up heads. You would also know whether coin 1 or coin 2 was tossed three times in the next stage, which would allow you to make estimates for the probabilities of coin 1 and coin 2 turning up heads. These estimates would be justified by saying that they maximized the likelihood of the observed data, which would include not only the results that you are given, but also the hidden data that you are not - the results from coin 0. For a coin that gets A heads and B tails you find that the maximum likelihood for the probability of A heads is A/(A+B) - it might be worth you working this out in detail, because it is the building block for the M step.

    In the EM algorithm you say that although you don't know the hidden data, you come in with probability estimates which allow you to write down a probability distribution for it. For each possible value of the hidden data you could find the parameter values which would optimize the log likelihood of the data including the hidden data, and this almost always turns out to mean calculating some sort of weighted average (if it doesn't the EM step may be too difficult to be practical).

    What the EM algorithm asks you to do is to find the parameters maximizing the weighted sum of log likelihoods given by all the possible hidden data values, where the weights are given by the probability of the associated hidden data given the observations using the parameters at the start of the EM step. This is what almost everybody, including the Wikipedia algorithm, calls the Q-function. The proof behind the EM algorithm, given in the Wikipedia article, says that if you change the parameters so as to increase the Q-function (which is only a means to an end), you will also have changed them so as to increase the likelihood of the observed data (which you do care about). What you tend to find in practice is that you can maximize the Q-function using a variation of what you would do if you know the hidden data, but using the probabilities of the hidden data, given the estimates at the start of the EM-step, to weight the observations in some way.

    In your example it means totting up the number of heads and tails produced by each coin. In the PDF they work out P(Y=H|X=) = 0.6967. This means that you use weight 0.6967 for the case Y=H, which means that you increment the counts for Y=H by 0.6967 and increment the counts for X=H in coin 1 by 3*0.6967, and you increment the counts for Y=T by 0.3033 and increment the counts for X=H in coin 2 by 3*0.3033. If you have a detailed justification for why A/(A+B) is a maximum likelihood of coin probabilities in the standard case, you should be ready to turn it into a justification for why this weighted updating scheme maximizes the Q-function.

    Finally, the log likelihood of the observed data (the thing you are maximizing) gives you a very useful check. It should increase with every EM step, at least until you get so close to convergence that rounding error comes in, in which case you may have a very small decrease, signalling convergence. If it decreases dramatically, you have a bug in your program or your maths.